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Notes on the Florida Vote in
the 2000 Election
Sebago Associates, Inc., undertook a variety of
preliminary analyses on the Florida Vote in the 2000 Presidential Election in
the days immediately following November 7th. The
following three notes suggest that irregularities existed in the
Palm Beach County vote, and that such irregularities were likely caused by a
confusing "butterfly" ballot. The papers were written largely for a
popular audience; those interested in the underlying statistical analyses, which
include a broader array of specifications and tests, should e-mail stats@sbgo.com.
Other analyses, which in some cases now rely on more extensive data, are
available below.
For those interested, we have established a
discussion group on analyses of the 2000 election. You can sign up for the
group below.
Data used in above analyses:
Note:
Pre-recount data are used in the notes above
Other analyses of the Florida vote can be
obtained at:
 | Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R.
Mebane, Jr., and Michael C. Herron, "Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach County," available at http://elections.fas.harvard.edu
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| Bruce Hansen, Three Papers on the Florida Vote
Count: "A Non-Parametric Analysis of Undervotes in the Palm Beach
Presidential Vote: Implications for a Recount;" "A Precinct-Level Demographic
Analysis of Double-Punching in the Palm Beach Presidential Vote;" and "Who Won Florida? Are the Palm Beach Votes
Irregular?" available at http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/vote/vote.html
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Chris Carroll, Two Papers on the Florida Vote Count: "Analysis Of
Patterns of Undervoting in Miami-Dade County" and "Did More People Try to Vote for Gore than for Bush in
Palm Beach?" available at http://www.econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/carroll.html
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| John Romley, "Statistical Analysis of Florida
Election," available at http://www.stanford.edu/~jromley/election.html
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| Henry
Brady, "What Happened in Palm Beach," available at http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~ucdtpums/palm2.pdf
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| Greg Adams and Chris Fastnow, "A Note on the Voting Irregularities in Palm
Beach, Florida," available at http://madison.hss.cmu.edu
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| Craig Fox, "A Vote for Buchanan is a Vote for Gore? An
Analysis of the 2000 Presidential Election Results in Palm Beach,
Florida," available at http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~cfox/Bio/election2000note.pdf
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| Burt Monroe, "Did Votes Intended for Gore Go to
Buchanan?" available at http://www.indiana.edu/~playpol/pbmodel.pdf
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| Till Rosenband, "Voting Irregularity in Palm Beach County,
Florida," available at http://web.mit.edu/norstadt/Public/election.pdf
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| John Irons, "A Preliminary Look at the Vote Count in Palm
Beach, Florida," available at http://www.amherst.edu/~jsirons/election/
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| Matthew Ruben, "Statistical Analysis of the Vote in Palm
Beach, Florida," available at http://weber.ucsd.edu/~mruben/florida.htm
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| Layth Alwan, "A Statistical Study of Buchanan's
2000 Presidential Vote Total in Palm Beach, FL," available at http://www.uwm.edu/~alwan/palmbeach.pdf
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| Robert Max Johnson, "The Palm Beach
Story?" available at http://homepages.nyu.edu/~rmj1/PalmBeach.html
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| Jonathan O'Keeffe, "Palm Beach County Election
Irregularities," available at http://www.bestbookmarks.com/election/
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| Greg Thorson, "Estimating the Expected Vote for
Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida: An Alternative Model Based on Prior
Support for Buchanan," available at http://www.mrs.umn.edu/~gthorson/floridadispute.htm
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| Eric Lawrence, "A Very Brief Note on the Effect
of Errors in the Recount Process," available at http://gwu.edu/~edl/counting.pdf
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| Bob Spence, "The Palm Beach Ballots
Speak," available at http://pages.about.com/bgspence/index.html
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| David Rusin, "Likelihood of Altering the
Outcome of the Florida 2000 Presidential Election by Recounting,"
available at http://www.math.niu.edu/~rusin/recount
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| Russell Sobel and Robert Lawson, "Did the Media’s
Early Call of Florida for Gore Change the Election?" available at http://www.be.wvu.edu/divecon/econ/sobel/election/centraltime.htm
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| Michael Robinson, "Comparison of Precinct
Return Data between Duval and Lee County, Florida," available at http://www.netrinsics.com/DuvalVsLee/DuvalVsLee.html
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| Sam Dolinar, "A Precinct-by-Precinct
Statistical Analysis of Absentee and Non-Absentee Votes for Buchanan in Palm
Beach County," available at http://www.geocities.com/sdolinarjr/PalmBeach.html
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| Eric Rasmusen, "The Pattern of Spoiled Ballots
by County in Florida," and "The Buchanan Vote in Florida,"
available at http://php.indiana.edu/~erasmuse/elections/rasmusen.htm
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| Richard Smith, "A Statistical Assessment of
Buchanan's Vote in Palm Beach County," available at http://www.stat.unc.edu/faculty/rs/palmbeach.html
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Contradictory analyses can be found at:
Election 2000
discussion group
Sign up here, fill in your e-mail address in the box
below, or send an e-mail to statselection-subscribe@egroups.com.
This group is devoted to academic/researcher discussions of statistical analyses
of the 2000 election.
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